In a move that could shake up global oil markets, Donald Trump has announced a 25% tariff on countries buying Venezuelan oil—and India, being a major oil importer, could feel the heat.
If Trump makes a White House comeback in 2025, this policy could spike India’s fuel costs, shift trade alliances, and complicate U.S.-India relations. Let’s break down what this means for India and whether this is a big deal or just political posturing.
Why is Trump Targeting Venezuelan Oil?
Trump has never been a fan of Nicolás Maduro’s government in Venezuela. When he was in office, his administration pushed sanctions to weaken the socialist regime. The Biden administration later eased some restrictions, allowing Venezuela to sell more crude oil to countries like India and China.
Now, Trump is threatening a comeback with a stronger stance, proposing a 25% tariff to discourage countries from dealing with Venezuela.
But here’s the catch: India is a big buyer of Venezuelan crude. So, how will this tariff impact India’s energy security and economy?
How Much Oil Does India Buy? Let’s Look at the Numbers
India, the world’s third-largest oil consumer, imports over 85% of its crude oil needs. Venezuelan crude is attractive because it’s cheaper and helps diversify sources. Here’s how India’s oil imports looked in 2023:
Country—India’s Oil Imports (Million Barrels/Day)—Percentage of Total Imports
Iraq—1.0—22%
Russia—1.6—36%
Saudi Arabia—0.8—18%
Venezuela—0.3—7%
UAE—0.2—5%
Others—0.5—12%
Venezuela isn’t India’s top supplier, but it still plays a role in keeping oil prices stable. If a 25% tariff is imposed, India may cut back on Venezuelan crude, and that could have a ripple effect on fuel prices.
How Will India Be Affected?
1. Higher Oil Prices for Indian Buyers
A 25% tariff means higher import costs. Even though India doesn’t buy oil directly from the U.S., American policies influence global pricing. If Venezuelan oil becomes less attractive, India might have to pay more for oil from other sources.
2. More Dependence on Russia & the Middle East
With Venezuelan crude becoming less economical, India will rely more on Russian and Middle Eastern oil. But here’s the problem:
• Russia is already under Western sanctions, making trade riskier.
• Middle Eastern oil is expensive and often affected by geopolitical tensions.
This means less flexibility and higher import bills.
3. Diplomatic Pressure from the U.S.
India has always walked a fine line in global politics—maintaining strong ties with both the U.S. and countries like Russia and Venezuela.
• If India continues buying Venezuelan oil, it risks upsetting the U.S.
• If India stops buying, fuel costs could rise at home.
New Delhi will have to navigate this situation carefully.
4. Will Fuel Prices Go Up for Indian Consumers?
If import costs rise, it won’t be long before Indian consumers feel the pinch. Here’s what could happen:
• Higher petrol & diesel prices
• Increased inflation in transport and manufacturing
• More economic pressure on households
So, this isn’t just about international politics—it could hit your wallet too.
What’s Next? Will India Change Its Oil Strategy?
Trump’s tariff plan isn’t official yet, but if it happens, India will have to make some tough choices:
✅ Absorb the higher costs and keep buying Venezuelan oil
✅ Shift to alternatives like Russian, Saudi, and Iraqi crude
✅ Negotiate with the U.S. for exemptions or relaxations
Given India’s strong trade ties with both the U.S. and Venezuela, it’s unlikely that India will completely stop buying. Instead, India might find a workaround—like indirect purchases through third parties (a strategy often used with Russian oil).
Final Thoughts: Is This a Crisis or Just Political Noise?
Trump’s 25% tariff proposal is a bold move, but it’s not the end of the world for India. The real impact will depend on:
• Whether Trump actually wins the U.S. election
• How India’s government responds
• Whether global oil prices spike as a result
For now, it’s a waiting game. But one thing’s for sure—global energy politics just got a lot more interesting.